African countries in the rare earth metals market: outsiders or independent players?

Abstract

Relevance. Rising demand for rare earth elements (REE), coupled with China’s dominance in reserves and processing, is driving Western countries to seek alternatives in Africa. Although officially recorded African reserves account for less than 5% of the global total, including unrecorded deposits the continent may hold about one-third of the world’s supply.

Research Objective. The study aims to determine the position of African countries in the global REE market amid intensified competition between ‘old’ players (EU, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada) and ‘new’ players (USA, China).

Data and methods. In addition to monographs and research articles, the study uses primary and secondary statistical data and employs comparative cross-regional and cross-national analysis. The research follows the technological chain of REE production, from Africa to global markets, covering the period from 1952 to mid-2025.

Results. Although metal production is still virtually absent in African countries and only the lower segments of the technological chain have developed, African countries, primarily South Africa, are asserting themselves as independent actors in global rare earth markets. This trend is facilitated by higher returns from foreign investment in rare earth mining in Africa, amid the Juglar-type cyclical fluctuations of market prices and the current upward phase of the price cycle.

Conclusions. In the near future, Morocco, Nigeria, Burundi, and Zambia are expected to become the main arenas of competition between the ‘old’ and ‘new’ players for REEs in Africa. The first two are likely to fall under Western influence, the latter two under China’s.